National Weather Service Twin Cities Area Forecast Discussion

Data Provided by the National Weather Service

FXUS63 KMPX 162105

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
305 PM CST Sat Jan 16 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 305 PM CST Sat Jan 16 2021

Occasional light snow or flurries have started earlier this afternoon
and radar depicts a narrow band of light snow from Mora to St. Cloud
and Hutchinson moving eastward. A short wave passing through will
keep chances for light snow through most of the evening, but it
shouldn`t be consequential. Otherwise, cloud cover will linger
through the night, which is nothing new this winter. The clouds will
keep temps nearly steady in the upper teens and 20s.

Sunday will be rather similar to today. Another short wave passing
through will be responsible for some light snow or flurries by
afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings depict an atmosphere with
deep enough moisture to bring mostly snow. While unlikely, it is not
out of the realm of possibility the DGZ may be drier and allow for
patchy freezing drizzle as well. The more likely scenario would be
the lack of precip entirely due to the weak lift.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 305 PM CST Sat Jan 16 2021

Northwesterly flow looks likely to dominate much of this period. A
few short waves are expected to move along this flow and could
provide chances for some light snow. There is little agreement on
these waves between the different deterministic systems and within
most ensemble systems. The first of these possible short waves
arrives late Monday into Tuesday as a clipper type low and cold front
move through the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains. The GFS and some
GEFS members are the main drivers of precipitation chances here, but
with little agreement in other systems this looks unlikely. What is
more likely are the temperature shifts this week. Expect the early
part of the week to continue with near normal temperatures falling
slightly with the cold front passing Monday night into Tuesday. Warm
air advection then sets up as we head into the midweek returning us
to above normal and near freezing high temperatures. This warmer air
will be short lived as we return to more of a cold air pattern and
fall to below normal temperatures, for the first time in January for
most locations, late in the week into next weekend. So despite the
temperatures only being a little below normal our warmer than normal
trend of recent may make this feel quite cold. Based on Climate
Prediction Center Outlooks the colder weather is likely to continue
into the end of the month. The other wave of note comes in near the
end of the period next weekend. Some systems like the CMC GDPS are
suggesting snow, while others like the GFS keep this system farther
south. The full ensemble in the NBM has more confidence in this later
wave than the early week one, but with the time range and
variability between model systems the probability of this system
hitting the Upper Midwest remains low at this time.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1157 AM CST Sat Jan 16 2021

Light snow or flurries are expected to develop later this afternoon
across ern MN and wrn WI, but visibilities should remain VFR most of
the time. Cigs are mostly IFR or MVFR late this morning, but pockets
of VFR are also present. This will continue for the entire period,
but cigs should mostly reside in the MVFR category.

KMSP...There is no real signal to trend away from cigs between
1.2-1.5kft through the period. Expecting the possibility there could
be some IFR instances, most likely with the flurries or snow
showers later today.

Mon...MVFR ceilings. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
Tue...Mainly VFR. MVFR ceilings possible. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
Wed...VFR. Wind SW 10-15 kts.




SHORT TERM...Borghoff

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion