National Weather Service Twin Cities Area Forecast Discussion

Data Provided by the National Weather Service

FXUS63 KMPX 022051

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
351 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023

Key Messages:

- Warmer temps to continue through Tuesday before a cold front
approaches from the west, bringing the next chance for rain.

- Cooler air will follow in the wake of the front, with highs in the
40s and 50s on Friday and Saturday. Things will warm up to
seasonable by Sunday into Monday.

Lack of sky cover and gusty southerly winds has allowed for another
hot October day today, with 90s in western Minnesota and upper 80s
elsewhere. Tomorrow will still be warm, especially in areas east of
Mankato/St. Cloud, but 90s are unlikely. A cold front is knocking on
the door, and will make its way into western Minnesota on Wednesday.
Ahead of the frontal passage, a tightening pressure gradient will
lead to gusty (even moreso than today) southerly winds. Most
everywhere has a shot at seeing a 30MPH gust Tuesday afternoon and
evening. Just as winds peak around sundown, PoPs will return in a
west-to-east fashion, ahead of the FroPa. This system is a large-
scale system that could bring up to a half inch of QPF to western
MN. The farther to the east/south you are, the less rain you will
see. A marginal threat for severe weather comes with this front,
again, mostly in western Minnesota. PoPs cease midday on Wednesday
as the front is overhead. With the ending of PoPs enters cooler
temperatures that will be quite the shock compared to this past
week`s record highs.

Wednesday night through Sunday night...
We`ll begin to dry out Wednesday night. Skies will clear and allow
temperatures to cool into the upper 40s and lower 50s. Nature has
heard our complaints about the late season heat and hopes we`ll
appreciate the upcoming stretch of below normal temperatures that
arrive mid-week. On Thursday, cooler & crisp temperatures settle in
behind the front, with highs in the low to mid 60s. Westerly winds
also ramp up Thursday afternoon with gusts in excess of 30 mph
likely. Our post-frontal air mass will support to slight chances for
diurnal pop-up showers, especially along and north of I-94.
Temperatures continue to cool into the weekend, with highs only in
the low to mid 50s and lows in the 30s for Friday and Saturday.
Winds will turn more northwesterly for Friday and Saturday, making
it feel more like late October or early November. By Saturday, high
pressure should build in and bring an end to the rain chances and we
should stay dry through early next week. Our cooler than normal
temperatures do not stick for long and will start to moderate back
above normal on Sunday, with highs back in the 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023

VFR to prevail through the period. Southerly winds will continue to
increase early this afternoon then settle slightly overnight. Once
the surface wind gusts weaken, turbulence/wind shear may develop.
Precip will move in from the southwest Tuesday evening, just outside
of this TAF period.

KMSP... VFR conditions throughout with southerly winds. Gusts near
20 kts expected today, with potentially higher gusts tomorrow ahead
of the precipitation.

Tue...VFR. Wind SW 20G30 kts.
Tue Night...MVFR/RA likely, chc IFR/TSRA. Wind SW 15G25 kts.
Wed...MVFR early, then VFR. Wind W 15G25 kts.
Thu...Mainly VFR. Slight Chc afternoon MVFR/SHRA. Wind NW 15G25 kts.





NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion