000
FXUS63 KMPX 250846
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
346 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2023

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2023

KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry and seasonably cool through Tuesday before brief bout of snow.

- Late week system still likely with large uncertainties remaining.

Quiet again today, although with increased cloud cover. Temperatures
will be about the same as yesterday. The signal for light precip
this morning is still there, mainly in western Minnesota, but we
continue to omit it from the forecast. Reasoning behind this remains
shallow cloud depth and a dry layer near the surface. Ridging will
continue through early week, keeping things calm.

An uneventful weekend will lead into an uneventful early week.
Temepratures will remain about 10 degrees warmer in areas along and
east of the Twin Cities Metro than areas in western Minnesota, where
highs in the upper 20s are expected all week. Split flow expected
through Tuesday before a weak boundary passes through the region.
There is a chance for snow with this initial boundary passage
overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. Accumulations would likely not
exceed an inch, with the best chances being from St. Cloud to Red
Wing. Winds will shift from the north to the northwest with the
front and pick up slightly, with 10 to 15 MPH sustained on Tuesday.
Gusts could surpass 20 MPH, but not by much.

Wednesday into Thursday morning should be rather uneventful before
the next chance for rain/snow arrives Thursday midday. Spread
between the models continues, with anywhere from trace to an inch of
QPF. Needless to say, more time and model runs are needed before
conclusions can be made. The most likely scenario at this time
remains a snow to rain to snow event, with the snow occurring during
the early morning and evening hours.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1102 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023

Main concern is when MVFR ceilings will develop on Saturday. A
secondary concern regarding possible freezing drizzle early Saturday
morning has been lessening, due to lack of low level moisture.

As for the MVFR ceilings, timing and extent of this has also backed
off, but it still looks like there will be some developing Saturday
morning in west central and then southwest and central MN. It is
quite uncertain how far this will reach into eastern MN and far
western WI, but models suggest not until Saturday evening.

KMSP...There is some potential for the MVFR ceilings to reach KMSP
Saturday evening, but it is more likely to be later Saturday night
into Sunday morning. Otherwise, it seems doubtful any of the MVFR
will develop during the day on Saturday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SUN...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind N 5-15 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind NW 5-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PEM
AVIATION...TDK

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion